BRACKETOLOGY: March 5, 2006 11:55 am (Welcome Winthrop, Belmont and Murray St)

Washington, DC
1.UCONN16.Albany Philadelphia, PA
8.Arkansas9.Southern Illinois
5.Oklahoma12.Western Kentucky Auburn Hills, MI
4.George Washington13.Northwestern St
6.Marquette11.California Greensboro, NC
3.North Carolina14.Winthrop(BSOUTH)
7.Wisconsin10.Bradley Jacksonville, FL
2.LSU15.Penn(IVY)
Oakland
1.Ohio St16.Fairleigh Dickinson/Southern Dayton, OH
8.George Mason9.Northern Iowa
5.Pittsburgh12.Texas A&M Auburn Hills, MI
4.Boston College13.Kent St
6.West Virginia11.Michigan Salt Lake City, UT
3.Gonzaga14.Murray St(OVC)
7.Kentucky10.Arizona Dallas, TX
2.Memphis15.Delaware St
Minneapolis
1.Duke16.Oral Roberts Greensboro, NC
8.Indiana9.Seton Hall
5.Kansas12.UNC-Wilmington Salt Lake City, UT
4.Washington13.San Diego St
6.Nevada11.UAB Jacksonville, FL
3.Tennessee14.Manhattan
7.Wichita St10.Cincinnati Dayton, OH
2.Illinois15.Northern Arizona
Atlanta
1.Villanova16.Belmont(A-SUN) Philadelphia, PA
8.NC State9.Bucknell
5.Florida12.Air Force San Diego, CA
4.Iowa13.Wisconsin-Milwaukee
6.Michigan St11.Creighton San Diego, CA
3.UCLA14.Pacific
7.Georgetown10.Alabama Dallas, TX
2.Texas15.Davidson

Last Four In: Air Force, UNC-Wilmington, Texas A&M, Creighton
Last Four Out: Florida St, Syracuse, Hofstra, Missouri St

BRACKETOLOGY: March 3, 2006 3:00 pm

Washington, DC
1.UCONN16.Fairleigh Dickinson Philadelphia, PA
8.Alabama9.George Mason
5.Kansas12.Florida St San Diego, CA
4.Iowa13.Northwestern St
6.West Virginia11.California Greensboro, NC
3.North Carolina14.Pacific
7.Nevada10.Missouri St Jacksonville, FL
2.LSU15.Penn
Minneapolis
1.Ohio St16.Southern/Elon Dayton, OH
8.Arkansas9.Creighton
5.Georgetown12.UNC-Wilmington Salt Lake City, UT
4.Washington13.San Diego St
6.Wisconsin11.Texas A&M Salt Lake City, UT
3.Gonzaga14.Winthrop
7.NC State10.Northern Iowa Dallas, TX
2.Memphis15.Oral Roberts
Oakland
1.Villanova16.Albany Philadelphia, PA
8.Arizona9.Michigan
5.Boston College12.Bradley Auburn Hills, MI
4.George Washington13.Wisconsin-Milwaukee
6.Oklahoma11.Seton Hall Jacksonville, FL
3.Tennessee14.Manhattan
7.Wichita St10.UAB Dayton, OH
2.Illinois15.Delaware St
Atlanta
1.Duke16.Belmont Greensboro, NC
8.Kentucky9.Bucknell
5.Michigan St12.Western Kentucky Auburn Hills, MI
4.Pittsburgh13.Kent St
6.Florida11.Southern Illinois San Diego, CA
3.UCLA14.Murray St
7.Marquette10.Indiana Dallas, TX
2.Texas15.Northern Arizona

Last Four In: Florida St, Bradley, UNC-Wilmington, Texas A&M
Last Four Out: Air Force, Cincinnati, Hofstra, Syracuse

Bracketology Addendum Part 3

This is getting good. To say last night was very interesting would be an understatement. What had some bubble teams really fighting it out, but proceed with caution. The knee-jerk reaction is to proclaim Texas A&M and Florida St in as of right now. One win does not a season make however. Now, they both did themselves huge favors last night with their wins. It doesn't automatically place them in the tournament. If the Aggies can't win at Texas Tech this weekend and the 'Noles can't win at Miami, then what they did in their wins over Texas and Duke respectively will be negated.

Those wins though do put a lot of pressure on some teams in the Missouri Valley and Colonial. The quarterfinals tomorrow are going to be key as to determing who makes it and who doesn't. Wichita St and Creighton are probably the only two teams that are on lock status in the MVC so those other four bubble teams will be make things very interesting in St. Louis. In the CAA, George Mason is probably more of a lock than Wichita St so Hofstra, UNC-Wilmington and maybe Old Dominion to a lesser extent will be have it jumping in Richmond. I really can't wait to see what unfolds this weekend.

Back to Texas and Duke...they're both in trouble. Texas has a great frontcourt but you can't go far in the tournament without solid play from your guards. Texas' guards are stinking it up I'm afraid. Even if they will be in Dallas, Texas is going to have some issues making it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Duke is in trouble because JJ Redick is done. You can't keep playing him 39 and 40 minutes every game and expect it not to wear on him. Let's face it, besides JJ and Sheldon Williams, Duke doesn't have a lot of options. They may face a similar early-round fate as Texas.

As far as Conference tournaments go, the Atlantic Sun, MVC, Northeast, and Southern conferences get their tournaments going tonight and the Big South resumes.

Bracketology Addendum Part 2

I have no clue what to make of the three bubble teams from the Big East. Whenever they take one step forward-they followed that up with two steps back. Cincinnati had a golden opportunity to put a stamp on a bid Tuesday night, but the team everyone figured to be the odd one out, Seton Hall, jumped up to get them. One thing of interest though: The three teams at question here are Seton Hall, Cincinnati and Syracuse. While Cincinnati and Syracuse sport identical 1-2 records versus the other two teams, Seton Hall is 2-0. Just something to remember on selection Sunday.

Some more Conference tournament predictions:

Northeast Conference: This is another one of those leagues with a lot of parity. I probably had 3 or 4 teams make my bracket projections over the course of the season letting you know that there hasn't been a dominant team. Fairleigh Dickinson is the defending champ and it's tough to be the king. On top of that I love the way Central Connecticut is playing and I like how they went out of conference and beat some tough small conference competition. In this tournament, give me the other Blue Devils.

Big Sky: All year long I found it very difficult to fathom how Northern Arizona was staying in first place. After being exposed against Western Kentucky and Montana in 2 of their last three games, I don't think they've got what it takes to win this tournament...even if it is on their home court. Montana is the most talented team in this conference and I expect them to make a return trip to the Big Dance.

Patriot League: This is about as obvious as the West Coast Conference. Bucknell didn't only go 14-0 in conference, but they did it in pretty impressive fashion. In only four games did teams come within single digits and those were all on the road. These will be at home. Bucknell all day long.

America East: This tournament is all about Binghampton and Albany. However, it's more about Albany. If it hadn't been for New Hampshire sweeping them, Albany would've ran away with the conference title (possible semi-final showdown). Both teams Albany and Binghampton will be fighting for the first bids ever to the tournament. However, if Albany can get through the semi-finals in a hostile environment, the final at home will be theirs.

Bracketology Addendum

I've been watching Gonzaga all year and let me be the first to say that I will no longer ignore how they can't dominate the WCC. GW has been much more impressive in dominating the A-10 and no one's giving them any better than a 3 seed. Now I know the Gonzaga has that win over Michigan St (also beat Maryland with Chris McCray), however, they haven't beaten a good team since. I just can't ignore the fact that they needed a last second shot to beat San Francisco at home. Expect their seed the next I release my bracket to look drastically different. I have a feeling that the committee will do the same thing.

Now, more conference tournament predictions.

CAA: This tournament is going to be so good that I'm seriously considering making the ride down to Richmond for the Semifinals on Sunday. There really isn't a lot separating the CAA and the Missouri Valley. I really think it's going to take a couple upsets in other conference tournaments for the CAA not to get 2 teams in. While most people are talking about UNC-Wilmington, Hofstra and George Mason, I think Old Dominion will win the tournament. They're experienced and I still believe they're the most talented team in the conference. They'll prove why they were picked #1 in the preseason.

Metro Atlantic: Manhattan went out and took the conference title outright by beating Iona on Sunday. That will make them the favorite. The MAAC is one of those conferences, which protects their conference champion with a different tournament format. Manhattan would only have to play one game to get to the final. Anybody who meets them there would have to play at least 2.

West Coast: Although I just threw their name in the mud. They're protected by the format and they'll be playing on their home court. I still got Gonzaga winning this one.

Horizon League: Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be protected and has home court. Butler is the only team capable of challenging them, but they really aren't playing the type of ball needed to knock off Milwaukee.

Sun Belt: Just when you're ready to say Western Kentucky is the class of this league, Middle Tennessee St beats them and lets them know the automatic bid won't be given to them. A possible semifinal rematch looms and guess where the Sun Belt tournament will be held...that's right Murfreesboro, TN, the home of Middle Tennessee St. MTSU beats Western Kentucky and then knocks off the other top seed, South Alabama, to go to the Big Dance.

Mid-Continent: This will also be a competitive tournament. This tournament has a history of producing some surprises and this year may be no different. Last year, the 7th seed Oakland won this tournament so you know it may be wide open in Tulsa. That being said, Oral Roberts needs some get back for not winning the crown last year. They won't let their late-season surge to the #1 seed go to waste. Besides, they'll practically be on their home court.

BRACKETOLOGY: Let's hand out some bids.

Don't look now, but conference tournaments start this week. In fact, three conferences get started tomorrow. This is my favorite time of year and I actually enjoy it better than the NCAA tournament. Teams fight to the death to get into the NCAA tournament and it's just a joy to watch. I love watching these games because you won't see a better effort being given in any other sport at any time.

While it's great to see all the teams fight for a NCAA tournament bid, I think it's time for most of the smaller conferences to adopt the conference tournament format that protects the teams that have had the better regular season. The Metro Atlantic Athletic (MAAC), Horizon League, and West Coast Conference (WCC) are just some of the conferences that have done this and I think it's a good idea for two reasons. Number 1: It's a shame that a time as such a great year and it only takes one game to ruin their NCAA tournament dreams.
Number 2: You should want your best team in the tournament. Protecting them in the alternate formats helps. Do you really want your conference to be famous for producing the team that Duke beat by 50 or for producing the team that wins a first round game? Now for some predictions:

Big South: A funny thing happened on the way to Winthrop's Big South coronation this year; Coastal Carolina. That's right, the Chanticleers swept the Eagles and may have their number. However, Winthrop will be at home and they have experience in navigating this tournament. You can bet on the upstarts, but I'm going with Winthrop.

Atlantic Sun: Four games separate the top six seeds in this conference. This means that it's going to be wide open in Johnson City, TN this week. In cases like this, take the team playing the best basketball. Belmont has one 9 out of their last 10, I'm going with them.

Ohio Valley: There is no question about it. Relatively speaking, if Murray St doesn't win this tournament, it's going to be a rather large upset.

Southern: This ain't your grandfather's Southern Conference because your grandfather's SoCon played good basketball. I don't know what this is. I was expecting a big year out of Davidson and I'm thoroughly disappointed. That being said, and even from a 3 seed, I expect Davidson to do the job they left incomplete last year and cut the nets down in Charleston.

Missouri Valley: Oh boy. You know you've come up when your conference championship game is going to be nationally televised on a Sunday afternoon on CBS. The MVC picked the perfect time to have it's best year ever (See the bracket-6 teams in). This tournament is wide-open. Wichita St quietly won the regular season crown and is probably in the best shape for the tournament. I'm going with Northern Iowa for reasons I can't substantiate other than it's just my gut.

On to the bracket. Even the casual fan has probably heard how weak the bubble is this year. I compare the bubble this year to art-open to interpretation. There is going to be a team put in the tournament that initially people are going to go "huh?" However after taking a closer look, you won't be able to argue because the teams you think should be in resumes won't be that much better, if at all, than the teams that you think are questionable. The Final Four is Washington vs. Minneapolis and Oakland vs. Atlanta. This is good for games through February 26.

Last Four In: Air Force, UNC-Wilmington, Bradley, Indiana
Last Four Out: Hofstra, UAB, UTEP, Texas A&M

Washington, DC
1.UCONN16.Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson Philadelphia, PA
8.George Mason9.Missouri St
5.Wisconsin12.Air Force San Diego, CA
4.UCLA13.Wisconsin-Milwaukee
6.Oklahoma11.Syracuse Greensboro, NC
3.Tennessee14.Murray St
7.NC State10.Northern Iowa Dayton, OH
2.Ohio St15.Oral Roberts
Minneapolis
1.Villanova16.Albany Philadelphia, PA
8.Arizona9.Bucknell
5.Boston College12.UNC-Wilmington Auburn Hills, MI
4.Iowa13.Kent St
6.Kansas11.Southern Illinois Jacksonville, FL
3.LSU14.Manhattan
7.West Virginia10.California Salt Lake City, UT
2.Gonzaga15.Delaware St
Oakland
1.Memphis16.Belmont Dallas, TX
8.Arkansas9.Michigan
5.Marquette12.Bradley San Diego, CA
4.George Washington13.Northwestern St
6.Georgetown11.Indiana Jacksonville, FL
3.North Carolina14.Winthrop
7.Wichita St10.Kentucky Dallas, TX
2.Texas15.Northern Arizona
Atlanta
1.Duke16.Georgia Southern Greensboro, NC
8.Alabama9.Cincinnati
5.Michigan St12.Western Kentucky Salt Lake City, UT
4.Washington13.San Diego St
6.Florida11.Colorado Auburn Hills, MI
3.Pittsburgh14.Pacific
7.Nevada10.Creighton Dayton, OH
2.Illinois15.Penn