Monday, February 27, 2006

BRACKETOLOGY: Let's hand out some bids.

Don't look now, but conference tournaments start this week. In fact, three conferences get started tomorrow. This is my favorite time of year and I actually enjoy it better than the NCAA tournament. Teams fight to the death to get into the NCAA tournament and it's just a joy to watch. I love watching these games because you won't see a better effort being given in any other sport at any time.

While it's great to see all the teams fight for a NCAA tournament bid, I think it's time for most of the smaller conferences to adopt the conference tournament format that protects the teams that have had the better regular season. The Metro Atlantic Athletic (MAAC), Horizon League, and West Coast Conference (WCC) are just some of the conferences that have done this and I think it's a good idea for two reasons. Number 1: It's a shame that a time as such a great year and it only takes one game to ruin their NCAA tournament dreams.
Number 2: You should want your best team in the tournament. Protecting them in the alternate formats helps. Do you really want your conference to be famous for producing the team that Duke beat by 50 or for producing the team that wins a first round game? Now for some predictions:

Big South: A funny thing happened on the way to Winthrop's Big South coronation this year; Coastal Carolina. That's right, the Chanticleers swept the Eagles and may have their number. However, Winthrop will be at home and they have experience in navigating this tournament. You can bet on the upstarts, but I'm going with Winthrop.

Atlantic Sun: Four games separate the top six seeds in this conference. This means that it's going to be wide open in Johnson City, TN this week. In cases like this, take the team playing the best basketball. Belmont has one 9 out of their last 10, I'm going with them.

Ohio Valley: There is no question about it. Relatively speaking, if Murray St doesn't win this tournament, it's going to be a rather large upset.

Southern: This ain't your grandfather's Southern Conference because your grandfather's SoCon played good basketball. I don't know what this is. I was expecting a big year out of Davidson and I'm thoroughly disappointed. That being said, and even from a 3 seed, I expect Davidson to do the job they left incomplete last year and cut the nets down in Charleston.

Missouri Valley: Oh boy. You know you've come up when your conference championship game is going to be nationally televised on a Sunday afternoon on CBS. The MVC picked the perfect time to have it's best year ever (See the bracket-6 teams in). This tournament is wide-open. Wichita St quietly won the regular season crown and is probably in the best shape for the tournament. I'm going with Northern Iowa for reasons I can't substantiate other than it's just my gut.

On to the bracket. Even the casual fan has probably heard how weak the bubble is this year. I compare the bubble this year to art-open to interpretation. There is going to be a team put in the tournament that initially people are going to go "huh?" However after taking a closer look, you won't be able to argue because the teams you think should be in resumes won't be that much better, if at all, than the teams that you think are questionable. The Final Four is Washington vs. Minneapolis and Oakland vs. Atlanta. This is good for games through February 26.

Last Four In: Air Force, UNC-Wilmington, Bradley, Indiana
Last Four Out: Hofstra, UAB, UTEP, Texas A&M

Washington, DC
1.UCONN16.Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson Philadelphia, PA
8.George Mason9.Missouri St
5.Wisconsin12.Air Force San Diego, CA
4.UCLA13.Wisconsin-Milwaukee
6.Oklahoma11.Syracuse Greensboro, NC
3.Tennessee14.Murray St
7.NC State10.Northern Iowa Dayton, OH
2.Ohio St15.Oral Roberts
Minneapolis
1.Villanova16.Albany Philadelphia, PA
8.Arizona9.Bucknell
5.Boston College12.UNC-Wilmington Auburn Hills, MI
4.Iowa13.Kent St
6.Kansas11.Southern Illinois Jacksonville, FL
3.LSU14.Manhattan
7.West Virginia10.California Salt Lake City, UT
2.Gonzaga15.Delaware St
Oakland
1.Memphis16.Belmont Dallas, TX
8.Arkansas9.Michigan
5.Marquette12.Bradley San Diego, CA
4.George Washington13.Northwestern St
6.Georgetown11.Indiana Jacksonville, FL
3.North Carolina14.Winthrop
7.Wichita St10.Kentucky Dallas, TX
2.Texas15.Northern Arizona
Atlanta
1.Duke16.Georgia Southern Greensboro, NC
8.Alabama9.Cincinnati
5.Michigan St12.Western Kentucky Salt Lake City, UT
4.Washington13.San Diego St
6.Florida11.Colorado Auburn Hills, MI
3.Pittsburgh14.Pacific
7.Nevada10.Creighton Dayton, OH
2.Illinois15.Penn

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