Monday, March 17, 2008

SOUTH REGION BREAKDOWN

1. Memphis Tigers
Location: Memphis, TN
Record: 33-1
Automatic Bid: Conference USA Champions
Key Players: Chris Douglas-Roberts (17.2 ppg), Derrick Rose (13.9 ppg), Robert Dozier (9.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Joey Dorse (9.6 rpg)
Strengths: Across the board, Memphis is the most talented team in the country. While Douglas-Roberts and Rose are Memphis’ go-to guys, Memphis has a litany of other guys who can hurt you. It’s also amazing that such a talented team makes the kind of commitment on the defensive end. Memphis’ opponents are shooting just 38% against the Tigers. When you can score like the Tigers and defend the way they do, you’re going to be one tough team to compete with.
Weakness: The Tigers are a terrible free-throw shooting team. Memphis has played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country and its 60% from the charity stripe hasn’t really hurt it too much. The Tigers have been able to get by on their superior talent. However, in the tournament, when mistakes are crucial, will Memphis’ shortcomings at the free-throw line spell doom?

2. Texas Longhorns
Location: Austin, TX
Record: 28-6
At-Large Bid: Big 12 Conference
Key Players: DJ Augustin (19.8 ppg), AJ Abrams (16.1 ppg), Damion James (13.2 ppg, 10.5 rpg)
Strengths: Bar none, Texas has the best starting backcourt in the country. DJ Augustin may be the best point guard in the country and AJ Abrams can fill it up as well. Those two are very difficult to handle. No team has been able to contain the two, let alone stop them. If they’re working their magic, they can take the Longhorns a long way.
Weakness: Texas starting five is among the best in the country. There’s not much production past that though. Texas must get something out of its bench to be successful in the tournament. Teams are too good at this level to allow Augustin and Abrams alone to beat them. If Texas wants to make a serious run at a national Championsship, someone else will have to step up for Texas.

3. Stanford Cardinal
Location: Palo Alto, CA
Record: 26-7
At-Large Bid: Pac-10 Conference
Key Players: Brook Lopez (19.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg), Anthony Goods (10.4 ppg), Robin Lopez (10.0 ppg)
Strengths: Stanford will go as far as the Lopez twins will take them. They are the most difficult players in the country to match-up against. Their size and skill level allow them to take over games on a regular basis. Defensively, they’re game-changers by the way they just shut the paint down. You just don’t score in the paint against them. The twins are a load to deal with.
Weakness: For a team with that kind of talent in the paint, Stanford still doesn’t shoot the ball well. Stanford is second from the bottom in the Pac-10 in field goal percentage. Stanford should be getting easy shots with the Lopez twins, yet the Cardinal only shoot 45% from the field. Teams are going to throw zones at the Cardinal, if they can’t handle it, they may not be around the tournament long.

4. Pittsburgh Panthers
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Record: 26-9
Automatic Bid: Big East Conference Champions
Key Players: Sam Young (18.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), DeJuan Blair (11.7 ppg, 9.1 rpg), LeVance Fields (11.1 ppg)
Strengths: Pittsburgh is just tough. To have gone through what the Panthers had to go through this season and have the success they’ve had is nothing short of amazing. There is no back down and no give up. If you’re going to beat Pitt over the next three weeks, not only are you going to have to play well, you’re going to have to outwork them for everything because they are going to fight you tooth and nail to the finish.
Weakness: Depth is a problem for the Panthers. They weren’t extremely deep to begin with and then the injuries they incurred this season exasperated the problem. Fields has return and that provides relief, but Pittsburgh really only has 7-man rotation. A team that likes to run may do the Panthers in.

5. Michigan State Spartans
Location: East Lansing, MI
Record: 25-8
At-Large Bid: Big Ten Conference
Key Players: Raymar Morgan (14.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Drew Neitzel (13.8 ppg), Goran Suton (8.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg)
Strengths: If there are two things a Tom Izzo-coached team is going to do they are play great defense and rebound the basketball. That’s exactly what this team hangs it’s hat on. In a conference where those two things are valued, Michigan St is fourth in the Big Ten in field goal percentage defense and first in rebounding margin. There won’t be many tougher teams in than tournament than the Spartans.
Weakness: I question Michigan St’s athleticism. This is a team that can get out and run more than your typical Spartan squad yet it still scores in the low 70’s. Will Michigan St be able to go up-and-down effectively against teams with superior athleticism? That’s the question the Spartans will have to answer at some point in the big dance.

6. Marquette Golden Eagles
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Record: 24-9
At-Large Bid: Big East Conference
Key Players: Jerel McNeal (14.3 ppg), Dominic James (13.0 ppg), Lazar Hayward (13.0, 6.5 rpg), Wesley Matthews (11.2 ppg)
Strengths: Marquette has a trio of guards in McNeal, James, and Matthews who cause problems both offensively and defensively. They’re athletic, quick and can do just about anything they want whenever they want to do it offensively. On defense, they well take a team out of its offense. They’re that disruptive with their quick hands and quick feet. That creates easy offense for the Golden Eagles and when they can do that, they’re dangerous.
Weakness: As good as Marquette’s guards are, its frontcourt is the opposite. Not much scoring and not much in terms of rebounding. They can defend a little bit, but not much outside of that . That kind of production has made the Golden Eagles one dimensional.

7. Miami Hurricanes
Location: Coral Gables, FL
Record: 22-10
At-Large Bid: Atlantic Coast Conference
Key Players: Jack McClinton (17 ppg), James Dews (10.4 ppg), Dwayne Collins (8.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Anthony King (7.1 rpg)
Strengths: Miami is a team that really rebounds the ball well. The Hurricanes are in the top half of the ACC in every major rebounding category there is and that’s been key to their success this season. The Hurricanes are also second in the ACC in scoring defense allowing just under 68 points per game. In a conference where only two teams average under 70, that’s great defense.
Weakness: Miami doesn’t shoot the ball well. The Hurricanes are ninth in the ACC in field goal percentage. That stat alone makes Miami’s rebounding prowess necessary. If Miami rebounds the ball, they’ll stay in it, but because of the way it shoots, you can get a leg up on Miami if you bang the boards with them.

8. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Location: Starkville, MS
Record: 22-10
At-Large Bid: Southeastern Conference
Key Players: Jamont Gordon (17.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Charles Rhodes (16.7, 7.8 rpg), Barry Stewart (11.6 ppg), Ben Hansbrough (10.3 ppg), Jarvis Varnado (7.9 ppg, 8.0 rpg)
Strengths: Mississippi St does an excellent job defensively; contesting shots and crashing the boards. Teams only shoot 37% and score 65 points per game against the Bulldogs on the year, both good enough for first in the SEC in field goal percentage and scoring defense. The Bulldogs collect just under 41 boards a game, again, good enough for first in the conference. They’ll be a tough out if they can continue to do that this March.
Weakness: The Bulldogs have a turnover problem. Mississippi St has 88 more turnovers than its opponents this season. That’s the reason the Bulldogs have been a bit inconsistent given the talent level on this squad. If it sures that up, Mississippi St will be tough, but that’s big if considering it hasn’t happened by now.

9. Oregon Ducks
Location: Eugene, OR
Record:
18-13
At-Large Bid: Pac-10 Conference
Key Players: Malik Hairston (16.1 ppg), Marty Leunen (15.2 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Tajuan Porter (13.8 ppg), Bryce Jordan (13.0 ppg)
Strengths: Oregon’s offensive balance is much underrated. You have a trio of guards in Hairston, Porter, and Jordan who can light it up at anytime. Then you have Leunen who can work down low, but also shoots just under 51% from three-point range. When you have the kind of weapons Oregon has offensively, you can beat a lot of people.
Weakness: In a conference with teams that play excellent defense, Oregon has decided to shy away from that part of the game. The Ducks are in the bottom half of the Pac-10 in field goal percentage defense, scoring defense and they force just over 11 turnovers a game. While the Ducks are hard to defend, they’re easy to score on.

10. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Location: Moraga, CA
Record: 25-6
At-Large Bid: West Coast Conference
Key Players: Patrick Mills (14.5 ppg), Diamon Simpson (13.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg), Omar Samhan (10.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg)
Strengths: Overall, Saint Mary’s is the best defensive team in the West Coast Conference. The Gaels are in the top quarter of the league in every major defensive statistical category, including rebounding. Given the competition they’ve played throughout the season, that’s very impressive. Saint Mary’s stingy defense really has been the key to it’s surprising success this season.
Weakness: The Gaels are shooting about 66% from the line this season. That’s not going to win you many games in March. It’s killed them all year and they’ve got to shoot it better to advance in the tournament. If the Gaels has another 10-22 night from the line, it will go down.

11. Kentucky Wildcats
Location: Lexington, KY
Record: 18-12
At-Large Bid: Southeastern Conference
Key Players: Joe Crawford (17.3 ppg), Ramel Bradley (15.8 ppg)
Strengths: Tubby Smith may have left Kentucky for Minnesota, but the Wildcats will still guard you like his teams did. The Wildcats hold their opponents to under 40% for the year. Playing that kind of defense held the fort together until Kentucky got healthy and turn it’s season around. Kentucky now has a chance to really put a nice ending to a season that started so poorly using its lock-down defense.
Weakness: Kentucky’s depth and inexperience will play huge factors in what it’ll do in the tournament. With Patrick Patterson out for the duration of the tournament, Kentucky will need someone off the bench to step up. Kentucky’s roster is littered with freshmen and sophomores-will those kids be able to handle the moment? Some interesting questions for the Wildcats to answer.

12. Temple Owls
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Record: 21-12
Automatic Bid: Atlantic 10 Conference Champions
Key Players: Dionte Christmas (20.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Mark Tyndale (15.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg)
Strengths: It only makes sense that Philly kids star for a team from Philly. Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale do everything for the Owls. From being the facilitators on offense to rebounding the basketball to being the best defenders, these two are the reason why Temple is in the tournament. If Temple is to go far, these two will be the reason why that happens as well.
Weakness: Apparently when John Chaney retired, he took his mentally tough trademark with him because the Owls lag in that area. Temple is in the bottom half of the A-10 in scoring defense, rebounding margin, and turnover margin. That means the Owls don’t defend, don’t crash the boards and don’t value the basketball-three things that were hallmarks of Chaney’s teams.

13. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Location: Tulsa, OK
Record: 24-8
Automatic Bid: Summit League Champions
Key Players: Robert Jarvis (16.1 ppg), Moses Ehambe (11.7 ppg), Shawn King (9.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg)
Strengths: Oral Roberts plays outstanding defense. Its opponents shoot less than 40% from the field. The Golden Eagles also average over six steals a game and force over 14 turnovers a game altogether. If you can guard like that, you’re going to win your fair share of games. That’s what the Golden Eagles have done to the tune of 24 victories this season.
Weakness: A team of Oral Roberts’ talent level has to shoot better than 67% percent from the line. That’s just not going to cut it against NCAA touranament teams. They just don’t have the horses to overcome a sub-70% night from the line. They’re solid in just about every area, but the free line and that will kill you.

14. Cornell Big Red
Location: Ithaca, NY
Record: 22-5
Automatic Bid: Ivy League Champions
Key Players: Ryan Wittman (15.4 ppg), Louis Dale (13.8 ppg), Adam Gore (10.1 ppg), Jeff Foote (6.4 rpg)
Strengths: Cornell’s advantage lies in its backcourt with Wittman, Dale and Gore. They take a lot of 3 pt shots and when you can hit them at a 41% clip, you can get away with it. Cornell also counters with good size for mid-major. Jeff Foote stands at 7-feet tall while Jason Hartford comes in at 6’9. This is a team that doesn’t beat itself. The Big Red averages 77 ppg while it averages 13 turnovers per game.
Weakness: Defense. The Big Red allows its opponents to shoot a respectable 36% from three and 42% overall. In its five losses, the lowest amount the opposing team scored was 76 points, and it that was Colgate. While this team has shown the ability to score, if it faces a squad that can do the same in the tournament, Cornell may be in trouble.

15. Austin Peay Governors
Location: Clarksville, TN
Record: 24-10
Automatic Bid: Ohio Valley Conference Champions
Key Players: Drake Reed (14.6 ppg), Derek Wright (11.7 ppg), Todd Babington (11.6 ppg), Wes Channels (11.0 ppg), Fernandez Lockett (10.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg)
Strengths: With five players averaging double figures, Austin Peay presents a dilemma for opposing defenses. While Reed is its main cog, Austin Peay has four other guys to turn to when it needs a bucket. That kind of balance can be a nightmare for opposing coaches.
Weakness: Only going eight-men deep, Austin Peay lacks depth. The quality teams in the country will be able to throw a lot of people at the Governors to get into their legs and fatigue them. In addition to that, Austin Peay’s opponents are shooting a higher percentage than it is. That’s amazing given what the Governors been able to do this year. If they don’t contest more shots, they won’t be doing much else.

16. UT-Arlington Mavericks
Location: Arlington, TX
Record: 21-11
Automatic Bid: Southland Conference Champions
Key Players: Anthony Vereen (13.6 ppg), Rog’er Guignard (13.1 ppg), Jermaine Griffin (12.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg), Brandon Long (11.1 ppg), Larry Posey (8.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg)
Strengths: UTA has ridden its defense all year long and will need to if it wants to compete in the tournament. The Mavericks have held opposing teams to under 40% shooting on the season. That’s the reason UTA was able to do so well during the nonconference and in the conference tournament. If the Mavericks can carry that kind of effort into the tournament, maybe they can cause so trouble.
Weakness: The reason UTA finished second in the Southland is because it averages 17 turnovers a game. If that gets you seventh place in the Southland conference, what do you think it’ll get the Mavericks in the tournament? That’s a problem the Mavericks don’t need to rear itself or they will be going home quickly.

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