EAST REGION BREAKDOWN

1. North Carolina Tarheels
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Record: 32-2
Automatic Bid: Atlantic Coast Conference Champions
Key Players: Tyler Hansbrough (23.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg), Wayne Ellington (16.7 ppg), Tywon Lawson (12.4 ppg), Danny Green (11.6 ppg)
Strengths: North Carolina can just come at you in waves. The Tarheels are just so deep at every position. They have balance that can give you fits and then depth that can do the same. There are not many teams in America who could get up and down the court with Carolina’s athletes. North Carolina is averaging close to 90 points a game, those are NBA-type numbers. The Tarheels are ready for this tournament.
Weakness: While the Tarheels are defending better lately, good teams have found success scoring on the Tarheels. I don’t expect anyone in the first couple of rounds to be able to keep up with North Carolina, but as the Tarheels approach the Sweet 16 and beyond, they are going to have defend to win. Teams in this tournament are just too good to just let them run and gun.

2. Tennessee Volunteers
Location: Knoxville, TN
Record: 29-4
At-Large Bid: Southeastern Conference
Key Players: Chris Lofton (16.1 ppg), JaJuan Smith (14.5 ppg), Tyler Smith (13.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg),
Strengths: Tennessee may have the most effective press in the country. The Volunteers force over 18 turnovers per game off of it and they have athletes and deadly shooters to make you pay. Lofton is one of the most clutch players in college basketball today, he makes big shots and he makes tough shots. If you can get a handle on him, you may have a chance, but there hasn’t been anyone who could do that yet.
Weakness: Over the course of the year, Tennessee has played great defense, but lately they’ve been allowing teams to score on them too easily. We’re not talking tournament teams either. South Carolina gave them a scare twice down the stretch and if the Gamecocks can do it, teams in the tournament will be able to as well.

3. Louisville Cardinals
Location: Louisville, KY
Record: 24-8
At-Large Bid: Big East Conference
Key Players: David Padgett (11.7 ppg), Terrance Williams (11.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Earl Clark (10.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg), Jerry Smith (10.4 ppg)
Strengths: Louisville makes it next to very difficult to score. There aren’t many teams in the country that can guard like the Cardinals. Louisville has made a habit out of holding teams under 60 and that’s difficult to do with the way it likes to press. Offensively, Louisville’s post players are a load. Padgett, Williams, Clark, Derrick Caracter and Juan Palacios present one of the more formidable frontlines in the country. Guarding them would be a nightmare for anybody.
Weakness: Louisville struggles from the line at times. By shooting 66% from the charity stripe for the season, the Cardinals have sometimes struggled to put teams away. The Cardinals just flat out aren’t good enough to overcome that number. Louisville struggles getting second shot opportunities. You’d like to be able to do that in a half-court game, which will happen in March.

4. Washington State Cougars
Location: Pullman, WA
Record: 24-8
At-Large Bid: Pac-10 Conference
Key Players: Derrick Low (14.1 ppg), Kyle Weaver (12.1 ppg), Taylor Rochestie (11.0 ppg), Aron Baynes (10.2 ppg)
Strengths: Washington St will be in any game it plays in because it makes it extremely difficult for its opponents to score. Washington St opponents only score a paltry 57 points and shoot 42% on average against the Cougars. They play some of the toughest man-to-man defense you’ll see anybody play.
Weakness: There’s no explosion to the Cougars. There are other teams in the country that play a similar style to Washington St, but, in the case of the Cougars, it seems as if you can strike at any moment. That’s a dangerous way to live. The Cougars inability to put teams away may come back to haunt them this March.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Location: South Bend, IN
Record: 24-7
At-Large Bid: Big East Conference
Key Players: Luke Harangody (20.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg), Kyle McAlarney (15.2 ppg), Rob Kurz (12.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Tory Jackson (8.1 ppg, 6.1 apg)
Strengths: Notre Dame does one thing maybe better than any team in the country-shoot the three. That’s the Irish’s game plan and it doesn’t matter if you know it. They’re going to let the three’s fly regardless. Notre Dame has eight guys it can send out there that can knock down shots. When they’re falling it’s a beautiful thing to behold, but hell to defend.
Weakness: Notre Dame really lacks athletes and that has caused a lot of issues defending people. Teams such as UConn and Marquette have really given the Irish trouble defensively this season because both have guards that can get up and down the court. That’s why Big East opponents have average just under 76 points per game on Notre Dame. Transition basketball may turn out to be what does in the Irish.

6. Oklahoma Sooners
Location: Norman, OK
Record: 22-10
At-Large Bid: Big 12 Conference
Key Players: Blake Griffin (14.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Longar Longar (11.8 ppg), Tony Crocker (11.5 ppg)
Strengths: Oklahoma can punish you with its frontcourt. Griffin and Longar are one of the best frontcourt combinations in a conference, the Big 12, which has outstanding frontcourts. They have good size, know their limitations, and they work well together. Those two can be a load to deal with in the paint.
Weakness: For a team that isn’t that explosive, shooting 68% from the free-throw line will not cut it. You can not leave points on the board when it’s already a struggle for you to score. Oklahoma is not a team that has the luxury of missing free throws. They can not have a bad shooting night in the tournament and survive.

7. Butler Bulldogs
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Record: 29-3
Automatic Bid: Horizon League Champions
Key Players: Mike Green (14.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg), AJ Graves (13.3 ppg), Matt Howard (12.6 ppg, 5.6 apg), Pete Campbell (11.2 ppg)
Strengths: Any team that doesn’t turn the ball over and shoots the three well is going to win a lot of games. That’s what Butler does. They have guys at every position who can knock it down from behind the arc and that makes the Bulldogs hard to defend. Having made the Sweet 16 last season and playing the entire year with a target on its back don’t’ expect Butler to be overwhelmed by anything. The Bulldogs will be ready.
Weakness: Butler is really weak in the paint. Matt Howard is Butler’s most effective low post player, but at 6’7, he may have his hands full with a skilled big man in the tournament. The Bulldogs have been out-rebounded on the year. With possessions coming at a premium in the Big Dance, the backboard will be an issue for Butler.

8. Indiana Hoosiers
Location: Bloomington, IN
Record: 25-7
At-Large Bid: Big Ten Conference
Key Players: Eric Gordon (21.8 ppg), DJ White (17.3 ppg, 10.4 rpg), Armon Bassett (11.1), Jordan Crawford (10.0 ppg)
Strengths: Indiana has an inside-out punch that is tough to deal with. Gordon and White may be that best guard-big man combo in the country. They’re both skilled and can do so many things. Their teammates play off of them very well and are able to get easy baskets because of it. When those two are on, the Hoosiers can be anybody in America.
Weakness: Indiana doesn’t have the depth you’d like to see a team of its caliber have. There are only about seven players who really play significant minutes for Indiana. With such a short turnaround in the tournament, having such a short bench will be an issue.

9. Arkansas Razorbacks
Location: Fayetteville, AK
Record: 19-12
At-Large Bid: Southeastern Conference
Key Players: Sonny Weems (14.3 ppg), Patrick Beverly (12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Darian Townes (11.8 ppg)
Strengths: Arkansas is an excellent defensive team. The Razorbacks are third in the SEC in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense, while averaging over seven steals a game. They’re athletic and have excellent size in the low-post. With its personnel, Arkansas can defend any team in the country.
Weakness: Arkansas turns the ball over at high rate. The Razorbacks are eighth in the SEC in turnover margin. With the way they play defense, that’s not good enough. Arkansas cannot give teams extra opportunities and expect to advance in this tournament. Teams are just too good.

10. South Alabama Jaguars
Location: Mobile, AL
Record: 26-6
At-Large Bid: Sun Belt Conference
Key Players: Demetric Bennet (20.1 ppg), Domonic Tilford (12.7 ppg), Daon Merritt (11.5 ppg), Brandon Davis (10.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg), DeAndre Coleman (7.8 rpg)
Strengths: South Alabama really values getting on the glass. The Jaguars lead the Sun Belt Conference in rebounding margin at 6.4 per game. Coleman, Davis, and Bennet are all adept at attacking the backboard. If the Jaguars are able to do that in the tournament, they’ll be able to stay within striking distance of any team they’ll face.
Weakness: The Jaguars are rather shaky with the basketball. Teams are getting extra possessions from the Jaguars because South Alabama’s opponents are averaging seven steals per game. That’s an alarming stat because those are the kind of turnovers that can lead to immediate points.

11. Saint Joseph’s Hawks
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Record: 21-12
At-Large Bid: Atlantic-10 Conference
Key Players: Pat Calathes (17.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Ahmad Nivins (14.4 ppg), Rob Feguson (11.6 ppg), Tasheed Carr (10.9 ppg)
Strengths: Pat Calthes and Ahmad Nivins are one of the most underrated frontcourt tandems in the country. Averaging around 32 points and 13 rebounds together, those two can cause problems for any team in the country. For the Hawks to be successful, those two must continue to provide the offense and help on the backboards for St Joseph’s to be successful.
Weakness: St. Joseph’s will have to rebound and play better defense to win games in the tournament. Teams shoot too well from three on the Hawks and they are seventh in the A-10 in rebounding margin. The Hawks will not face a Richmond or Fordham in the tournament, so making those two issues priorities should be imperative for them.

12. George Mason Patriots
Location: Fairfax, VA
Record: 23-10
Automatic Bid: Colonial Athletic Association Champions
Key Players: Folarin Campbell (15.9 ppg), Will Thomas (15.8 ppg, 10.5 rpg), John Vaughn (12.6 ppg)
Strengths: George Mason has experience. Final Four experience. Two years ago the Patriots made the run to Indianapolis with two of its seniors, Campbell and Thomas, playing prominent roles. Throw in Jordan Carter in that mix and it’s not much you can throw at George Mason it hasn’t seen already.
Weakness: George Mason has had wild bouts of inconsistency this year. You don’t know which Patriot squad will show up. Will it be the team that beat Cleveland St, Kansas St, VCU, and a healthy Dayton outfit or will it be the team that lost to East Carolina, Georgia St, Delaware, and Northeastern?

13. Winthrop Eagles
Location: Rock Hill, SC
Record: 22-11
Automatic Bid: Big South Conference Champions
Key Players: Michael Jenkins (14.3 ppg), Taj McCullough (11.5 ppg)
Strengths: Winthrop has depth that many high-majors would love to have. With nine guys playing significant minutes, the Eagles will have enough people to play against any style they’ll face in the tournament. Being able to throw a lot of different players at opposing teams is definitely an advantage most teams at Winthrop’s level don’t have.
Weakness: This is not like your old Winthrop teams that could score from anywhere. This team has difficulties putting points on the board from the field and from the line. They play good defense, so it’s masked that deficiency for the season. However, Winthrop won’t be playing any more teams from the Big South in the tournament. The Eagles will have to figure out a way to put points on the board consistently.

14. Boise State Broncos
Location: Boise, ID
Record: 25-8
Automatic Bid: Western Athletic Conference Champions
Key Players: Reggie Larry (19.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), Matt Nelson (15.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg), Tyler Tiederman (14.0 ppg)
Strengths: Boise St is an excellent offensive basketball team. The Broncos shoot close to 51% from the field and over 39% from behind the arc. Their 82-point-per-game average is first in the WAC and is just one of the reasons why Boise St held onto first in the WAC for much of the year. If they can continue to score like this, they’ll be able to keep up with a lot of clubs in the tournament.
Weakness: Boise St commits somewhere close to 16 turnovers a game. Most team on its schedule can’t score with Boise St so it hasn’t really hurt it yet. However, the tournament is an entirely different animal. There will be teams that can‘t compete with the Broncos bucket for bucket in the tournament. It might not want to give its opponents extra opportunities.

15. American Eagles
Location: Washington, DC
Record: 21-11
Automatic Bid: Patriot League Champions
Key Players: Garrison Carr (18.1 ppg), Derrick Mercer (12.4 ppg)
Strengths: American is ranked fourth nationally in three-point shooting. That will win you a lot of ball games. While Carr and Mercer both shoot ridiculous percentages in the forties, American has other guys who can knock down shots.
Weakness: There’s something wrong when a team shoots 41% from three and only averages 65 points a game. The Eagles have a turnover problem. When you’re sixth in the Patriot League in turnover margin, you know there something there that needs to be corrected. Given its opponent, American better fix that problem in a hurry.

16A. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
Location: Emmitsburg, MD
Record: 18-14
Automatic Bid: Northeast Conference Champions
Key Players: Chris Vann (14.4 ppg), Jeremy Goode (14.3 ppg)
Strengths: The Mountaineers have had their most success when it’s shooting well from the outside. Led by Jean Cajou, who’s shooting the three at 49%, Mount St. Mary’s has shown the ability to be deadly from deep. There are five guys on this club capable of making shots from downtown. The Mountaineers will need that to happen if they expect to have any success in the tournament.
Weakness: While the Mountaineers have a 7-footer, they don’t really have enough effective size inside. They don’t have a consistent scorer, defender, or guy who can rebound in the paint. There is no question that the Mountaineers will be punished in the paint.

16B. Coppin State Eagles
Location: Baltimore, MD
Record: 16-20
Automatic Bid: Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Champions
Key Players: Tywain McKee (16.6 ppg)
Strengths: Coppin St will not be afraid. Coach Fang Mitchell always puts together a tough schedule for his team and this year it paid off. Coppin is playing well right now and there’s no team in front of it that the Eagles will fear. That kind of attitude and preparation will have the Eagles ready for the tournament.
Weakness: Coppin can’t score. The Eagles only average 59.8 points per game as team for the year and they shoot the ball less than 40% from the field. It will extremely tough to win games in March that way. Getting through the conference tournament doing that is one thing, getting through the NCAA tournament with that kind of offense is entirely different.