Wednesday, March 14, 2007

BRACKETOLOGY: Reaction pt. 2

Today we get into predictions. Now I'll probably get numerous comments about this time tomorrow saying how wrong I am, but hey I'll still have fun with it.

MIDWEST:
Florida is the 1 seed in this region and is very deserving of that. I don't know if it deserved the #1 overall seed, but that really doesn't matter. I really don't see anyone posing much of a challenge towards the Gators, but I've been wrong before. I do see some interesting things in this bracket though. I think Davidson will beat Maryland before losing to Butler in the second round. The winner of the UNLV-Georgia Tech game will beat Wisconsin. Everyone is picking Winthrop, but Notre Dame is a BAD matchup for them. Sweet 16 will be Florida vs. Butler and Oregon vs. UNLV.
Florida over Oregon to go the Final 4.

West:
There seem to be a lot of people out there doubting the Kansas Jayhawks. People forget how they knocked Florida's jacket off earlier in the season and beat Texas twice. I have a lot of respect for the Jayhawks and I really don't think they'll lose in the first round this year (If they do...Bill Self might as well join the witness protection program). With the exception of the 1/16 and 2/15 games, I think this region has great first round matchups. We could very well see a second round game between Virginia Commonwealth and Wright St. In which case we could very well see Wright St in the Sweet 16. I definitely have VCU's guards making Duke look silly and that's my upset pick. Sweet 16 will be Kansas vs. Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh vs. UCLA. Kansas over UCLA to go to the Final 4.

East:
North Carolina comes at you in waves. Definitely the deepest team in the country and it's not fair. Tyler "Psycho T" Hansbrough may get the pub, but Brandon Wright is the best player in Carolina Blue and will be the difference maker in this region. The only issue I have with UNC is what happens when a good team steps toe-to-toe with them and won't back down. Carolina didn't do to well with that late in the year so we'll see what transpires. My upset pick is Arkansas over USC, however keep an eye on the New Mexico St/Texas game and Oral Roberts/Washington St game. They're "interesting." Sweet 16 will be UNC vs. Texas and Vanderbilt vs. Georgetown. UNC over Georgetown to go to the Final 4.

South:
I've never seen a #2 seed that less people respected than Memphis. I'm not sure I blame people. We really don't know how good they are. They deserve the seed they got, but we'll see what they're made of this weekend. People have been saying Ohio St has an easy road, I just don't see it. Xavier, Tennesseee and Virginia would be tough games for them. I absolutely love that Creighton/Nevada game. You have two of the best players in the country that no one talks about, Nate Funk (Creighton) and Nick Fazekas (Nevada). It'll be a fun matchup. My first round upset will be Stanford over Louisville. Sweet 16 will be Ohio St vs. Tennessee and Texas A&M vs. Memphis. Texas A&M over Tennessee to go to the Final 4.

Final 4 will be Florida vs. Kansas and UNC vs. Texas A&M. Two Big 12 teams, neither gets to the championship game. Florida vs. UNC in the most anticipated title game since UCONN/Duke in 1999 (hyperbole). Florida REPEATS.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it...until it all blows up in my face.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

BRACKETOLOGY: Reaction

Now that the tournament field is set, I think the committee did a great job. There are a few seeding issues, but there always are and as you can see, I pretty much agreed with the selections. I picked 64/65 correctly and would've had 65/65 had I not had the last minute change of heart on Arkansas (See Sunday MORNING'S bracket compared to Sunday EVENING'S). I do have some issues with the liberal media and some fans about three teams that got in and some that didn't.

The three teams in question are Xavier, Stanford and Arkansas. I will break this down right now.

Xavier had some really bad losses. Xavier also went 3-2 against the RPI Top-50 and 12-5 against the RPI Top-100. The Musketeers were 9-1 in their last 10 and had a winning road record. Among Xavier's quality wins were Virginia Commonwealth, Villanova, Kansas St, Illinois and George Washington.

I've heard people whining that Stanford shouldn't be in because they only had 18 wins. I've heard people whining that Stanford didn't finish well. I've heard people whining that Stanford shouldn't get in because they played in the Pac-10. Out of the 30 games the Cardinal played, 21 of them were against the RPI Top-100. Every one of their losses came against the Top-100-NO bad losses. Among their wins...@ Virginia (4 seed), Texas Tech (10 seed), Washington St (3 seed), USC (5 seed), UCLA (2 seed), Oregon (3 seed). The Pac-10 was the third rated conference too.

I changed my mind on Arkansas at the last minute because I felt as though putting them gave too much credit to the conference tournament and devalued what happened in the regular season. There are only two teams who have a legitimate beef on this: Drexel and Florida St.

The two most vocal teams seem to be Kansas St and Syracuse and I think this is caused by ignorance of fans and of the media. The committee has set specific guidelines for what teams need to do to prove they're on of the 34 best at-large teams. Kansas St and Syracuse didn't do that. I have NO problem with Arkansas being in over them and here's why:

The biggest argument against Arkansas being out of the tournament is the fact that they were 7-9 in the SEC and were in the weaker of the two divisions. Out of 16 conference games, Arkansas had 3 games versus teams outside of the RPI top-100. Syracuse had 6 and Kansas St had 7. This is not 1997, it's 2007 and things are different. We have unbalanced schedules in conferences which means 10-6 in the Big East and Big 12 may not be as attractive to the committee as 7-9 or 8-8 in another conference. When you play the kind of schedule in-conference as Syracuse and K-State did, you better schedule tough out-of-conference. Oh yeah...that's right; Syracuse out-of-conference strength of schedule was 122 and K-State's was 227. Arkansas was 35 and they went 11-3 against it including wins over Southern Illinois and West Virginia. Arkansas played 22 games against the top-100...Syracuse played 16 and K-State played 13. You want to play those schedules, you better make sure you don't lose to teams who didn't even make the NIT like K-State and Syracuse did. Syracuse and K-State simply did not do enough.

Personally, I would've put Drexel in because they did everything the committee would ask of a team: Schedule tough out-of conference, win on the road, beat quality opponents. That's what Drexel did. They got punished for not performing well against the top 3 teams in their league. Two-thirds of Division-I would've performed worst than Drexel did. Tough break for Drexel, but I'm not as mad about it as I was about Hofstra and Cincinnati not getting in last year.

I'll move on to the actual bracket tomorrow.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

BRACKETOLOGY: March 11, 2007 5:45 p.m (Welcome North Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M-CC, Ohio St, Kansas)

Last Four In: Drexel, Old Dominion, Stanford, Illinois
Last Four Out: Arkansas, Kansas St, Syracuse, Air Force

East
1.Florida(SEC)16.Jackson St(SWAC) New Orleans, LA
8.Illinois9.Arizona
5.Virginia Tech12.New Mexico St(WAC) Spokane, WA
4.UNLV(MW)13.Oral Roberts(MCC)
6.Creighton(MVC)11.Virginia Commonwealth(CAA) Columbus, OH
3.Texas14.Albany(AE)
7.USC10.Michigan St Winston-Salem, NC
2.Georgetown(BE)15.Niagara(MAAC)
South
1.Kansas16.Central Connecticut(NEC)/Florida A&M(MEAC) Chicago, IL
8.Boston College9.Kentucky
5.BYU12.Gonzaga(WCC) Sacramento, CA
4.Washington St13.Davidson(SC)
6.Marquette11.Old Dominion Columbus, OH
3.Southern Illinois14.Miami-Oh(MAC)
7.Virginia10.Texas Tech Chicago, IL
2.Wisconsin15.North Texas(SBelt)
Midwest
1.Ohio St(B10)16.Eastern Kentucky(OVC) Lexington, KY
8.Duke9.Villanova
5.Nevada12.Wright St(Horizon) Spokane, WA
4.Oregon(P10)13.George Washington(A-10)
6.Maryland11.Stanford Buffalo, NY
3.Pittsburgh14.Texas A&M-CC
7.Vanderbilt10.Indiana Lexington, KY
2.Memphis(CUSA)15.Belmont(ASun)
West
1.North Carolina(ACC)16.Weber St(BSky) Winston Salem, NC
8.Purdue9.Xavier
5.Notre Dame12.Drexel Buffalo, NY
4.Tennessee13.Holy Cross(Patriot)
6.Louisville11.Winthrop(BS) New Orleans, LA
3.Texas A&M14.Penn(Ivy)
7.Butler10.Georgia Tech Sacramento, CA
2.UCLA15.Long Beach St(BW)

BRACKETOLOGY: March 11, 2007 11:00 am (Welcome...

...Memphis, Albany, Jackson St, Florida A&M, George Washington, Miami-Oh, GEORGETOWN, UNLV, New Mexico St, Long Beach St...goodness)

Last Four In: Arkansas, Old Dominion, Stanford, Illinois
Last Four Out: Drexel, Kansas St, Syracuse, Air Force

East
1.Wisconsin16.Jackson St(SWAC) Chicago, IL
8.Boston College9.Arizona
5.Notre Dame12.New Mexico St(WAC) Spokane, WA
4.UNLV(MW)13.Oral Roberts(MCC)
6.Louisville11.Arkansas Columbus, OH
3.Texas14.Albany(AE)
7.Butler10.Michigan St Winston-Salem, NC
2.North Carolina15.Niagara(MAAC)
South
1.Kansas16.Central Connecticut(NEC)/Florida A&M(MEAC) Chicago, IL
8.Illinois9.Kentucky
5.BYU12.Gonzaga(WCC) Sacramento, CA
4.Washington St13.Davidson(SC)
6.Marquette11.Old Dominion Columbus, OH
3.Southern Illinois14.Miami-Oh(MAC)
7.Virginia10.Texas Tech New Orleans, LA
2.Florida15.North Texas(SBelt)
Midwest
1.Ohio St16.Eastern Kentucky(OVC) Lexington, KY
8.Duke9.Villanova
5.Nevada12.Wright St(Horizon) Spokane, WA
4.Oregon(P10)13.George Washington(A-10)
6.Maryland11.Stanford New Orleans, LA
3.Texas A&M14.Texas A&M-CC
7.Vanderbilt10.Indiana Winston-Salem, NC
2.Georgetown(BE)15.Long Beach St(BW)
West
1.UCLA16.Weber St(BSky) Sacramento, CA
8.Purdue9.Xavier
5.Virginia Tech12.Virginia Commonwealth(CAA) Buffalo, NY
4.Tennessee13.Holy Cross(Patriot)
6.Creighton(MVC)11.Winthrop(BS) Buffalo, NY
3.Pittsburgh14.Penn(Ivy)
7.USC10.Georgia Tech Lexington, KY
2.Memphis(CUSA)15.Belmont(ASun)